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Dallas

How Is Everybody Coping?

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Given the localised single positive new infection confirmed on Saturday, and that here in Southern Tasmania there are ZERO active cases now with no new cases for a couple of weeks now, the Premier today announced that we're entering stage one of the restrictions lifting tomorrow, which will considerably open things up, but with some limitations on numbers at any one time and things like bars and clubs still closed.

 

Stage two and three are on track for June 15 and July 13 respectively if things continue as they are, and while the borders will still be closed for the foreseeable future, life after July 13 should be as close to normal as the post-virus world will be in future (which no-one is expecting to be exactly as it was, most here agreeing that social distancing and other Covid-induced practices will continue as part of this new world experience). 

 

Given this, no-one will ever convince me that Tasmania's and New Zealand's  "Go early, go hard and lift cautiously", along with a very carefully calculated regime of keeping people as safe as possible during this lockdown, was not the best way to reign in the spread of this highly infectious disease, and I have the utmost faith in the Director of Public Health's reading of the situation that if a second wave looked possible, he'd have no hesitation in repeating the exercise. I doubt anyone here will do other than comply with enthusiasm, not with demonstrations, grumbling and selfish whining about personal restrictions as some other countries have experienced.

 

At the moment we are probably all feeling slightly euphoric with relief here, and that the couple of restricted months were well worth it, and were a good call by the experts, both in timing and degree of severity.

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The first problem with the hard lockdown approach is that it cannot eradicate the virus. For that approach to work sovereign borders would have to remain closed until there is not a single case of it anywhere on the planet. As we all know that's simply impossible. There is always going to be somebody, somewhere carrying it and there are always going to be people who refuse vaccination, regardless of however it is sold to them, especially now that we live in the age of social media and the prevalence of fake news.

 

So, the implication of continued lockdowns involving shut borders will be total isolation of not only citizens to the country of their residence, but also world economies, particularly those that rely on travel to exist. Think of the amount of employment that is centred around travel alone; 

  • air, road, rail & sea staff
  • logistics companies
  • software developers who produce IP for anything to do with travel (travel apps, booking apps)
  • hotels
  • taxis
  • motor trade 
  • leisure industry

Every person involved in these industries will become unemployed or be in possession of redundant skills. From the engineers to the pilots to the airport baggage handlers. How are they going to be fed or housed? 

 

The second problem with the hard lockdowns is that it takes a huge toll on the mental health of those people living under them who do not have the mental fortitude to survive social isolation. This is a problem that is way more serious than most people give a second thought to. Depression is more prevalent than covid19 right now and if it isn't properly addressed it can result in disaster. Every professional photographer I know is currently unemployed and many of them do not have enough savings to see them through another month of not working. That means they can't pay rent or buy food. There is no aid forthcoming from the government. 

 

My feeling is that the problem needs to be addressed for what it is; a serious virus for the elderly and those individuals who have compromised immune systems. Get them priority preventative treatment, protection and assistance where needed.

 

It should not have stopped the entire world the way it has. It's very easy for the well-off person to say that lockdown doesn't affect them all that much and ergo, everybody else should fall into line and suck it up. When you have no resources and nothing to fall back onto, what do you do? Wait for the Lone Ranger to show up and carry you off into the sunset? There will have to be a lot of rangers to make sure nobody gets left behind. Sadly it seems to be every man for himself, at least where I live. 

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2 hours ago, Alan7140 said:

Given this, no-one will ever convince me that Tasmania's and New Zealand's  "Go early, go hard and lift cautiously", along with a very carefully calculated regime of keeping people as safe as possible during this lockdown, was not the best way to reign in the spread of this highly infectious disease

I fully agree.

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Here we go !

'Texas reports huge spike in cases two weeks after reopening

Texas reported its largest one-day spike in new coronavirus cases on Saturday with 1,801 new infections.

It comes after the governor allowed all retail businesses to reopen on 1 May, but with restrictions on capacity.

Thirty-three more people died on Saturday, bringing the statewide death toll to 1,305.

Around 700 of the new cases were reported in Amarillo, where a meatpacking plant has been identified as a source of the local outbreak.'

 

Go Donald !


"Wild things are always faster"

from 'Two Dogs' by Philip Hodgins

Wild-Things@btconnect.com

www.Wild-Things-Photography.com

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2 minutes ago, CarreraS said:

Texas reports huge spike in cases two weeks after reopening

This was inevitable.

The same thing will happen wherever reopening is permitted too soon.

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12 minutes ago, Dallas said:

99.9% of the people who get covid19 will live to tell the tale. 

Not true.

The mortality rate worldwide is about three percent (of those infected).

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97% then

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4 hours ago, vivionm said:

Not true.

The mortality rate worldwide is about three percent (of those infected).

 

The correct answer is that we do not know, as we do not know how many people have been infected.  Large numbers of people have no symptoms and have not been tested. https://ourworldindata.org/mortality-risk-covid

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I was sent a link to a very good medical article by one of my friends, a specialist, who has been on many safaris with me over the years. It is very well reasoned and illustrates the possibilities of what lies ahead of us as we live around covid19. It is not going away so we need to accept that and find a pathway forward from it. I particularly like the bit at the end about this being a 3 way tug-of-war between health care, economy and personal well being. 

 

https://www.statnews.com/2020/05/01/three-potential-futures-for-covid-19/ 

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1 hour ago, Dallas said:

It is not going away so we need to accept that

I have.

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6 hours ago, Anthony said:

 

The correct answer is that we do not know, as we do not know how many people have been infected.  Large numbers of people have no symptoms and have not been tested. https://ourworldindata.org/mortality-risk-covid

OK then. AT LEAST three percent.

The US figure is six percent.

I am curious  to know Dallas' source for 99.9 percent.

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1 hour ago, vivionm said:

I am curious  to know Dallas' source for 99.9 percent.

 

It's even lower than that when you look at the mortality vs world population. As Anthony says, we don't know how many people are infected and how many people are immune, nor do we know for certain what the virus does differently in different environments. What we do know is that people are scared and people are angry. We want answers that aren't coming fast enough and for many, myself included, the required breathing space to obtain those answers has expired. Life has to go on, around covid19. We can't sit it out. 

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3 minutes ago, Dallas said:

It's even lower than that when you look at the mortality vs world population.

Show us the evidence backing this statement.

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3 minutes ago, vivionm said:

Show us the evidence backing this statement.

 

There are 8 billion people on earth. Allegedly 350k of them have died from covid19. It's a simple mathematical exercise. 

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10 hours ago, Anthony said:

 

The correct answer is that we do not know, as we do not know how many people have been infected.  Large numbers of people have no symptoms and have not been tested. https://ourworldindata.org/mortality-risk-covid


it will probably take years to be sure,  considering comparisons with long term average death rates.  There will be lots of people who are only mildly ill and not tested.  There will also be deaths outside the healthcare system that are also not diagnosed.

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4 hours ago, vivionm said:

OK then. AT LEAST three percent.

The US figure is six percent.

I am curious  to know Dallas' source for 99.9 percent.

 

The 3% figure was published by WHO in early March when knowledge about the outbreak was very limited. The WHO website shows (as of 17 May) reported laboratory confirmed cases and deaths worldwide as 4,525,497 cases worldwide and 307,395 deaths resulting from a clinically compatible illness in a probable or confirmed COVID case.

 

That is a rate of 6.8%. However, it is universally accepted that laboratory confirmed cases are a fraction of actual cases. Many people are asymptomatic, many people with symptoms have not been tested, and there is a high percentage of false negatives due to the difficulty of carrying out an effective sample collection.

 

At this stage it is impossible to state the case fatality rate. You may not have read this article (a link from the article I posted earlier) which explains this in detail. https://ourworldindata.org/covid-mortality-risk

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A very good resource, Anthony. Explains the difficulty of measuring these things.

 

The figure that most media are focusing on is the fatality count. That's what gets people scared and keeps them coming back to the media outlets for more information. If there is less fear there is less media traffic and as a result the advertising value of the platform goes down, so everyday we hear about the number of new cases and how many people have died since yesterday. Media thrives on death tallies, which is why we don't see them reporting too much on the number of people recovering. They need the general public to remain afraid of this virus, so that's the line they push on.  

 

I'm not afraid of the virus. I'm afraid of the pathway it has made for the further abuse of power here in South Africa. 

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2 hours ago, Anthony said:

 

The 3% figure was published by WHO in early March when knowledge about the outbreak was very limited. The WHO website shows (as of 17 May) reported laboratory confirmed cases and deaths worldwide as 4,525,497 cases worldwide and 307,395 deaths resulting from a clinically compatible illness in a probable or confirmed COVID case.

 

That is a rate of 6.8%. However, it is universally accepted that laboratory confirmed cases are a fraction of actual cases. Many people are asymptomatic, many people with symptoms have not been tested, and there is a high percentage of false negatives due to the difficulty of carrying out an effective sample collection.

 

At this stage it is impossible to state the case fatality rate. You may not have read this article (a link from the article I posted earlier) which explains this in detail. https://ourworldindata.org/covid-mortality-risk

How true.

One thing is certain. The actual infection and fatality rates are now much higher than they were in early March.

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20 hours ago, Dallas said:

99.9% of the people who get covid19 will live to tell the tale. 

They will indeed. For a week or even two.

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On 17/05/2020 at 12:18, CarreraS said:

'Texas reports huge spike in cases two weeks after reopening

Texas reported its largest one-day spike in new coronavirus cases on Saturday with 1,801 new infections.

Is this because there was a corresponding spike in testing? Sometimes the media only tells the half of the story that suits their agenda.

 

This is the site where I go here in the USA to following stats.

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/new-cases

 

 

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4 hours ago, Walter Rowe said:

Is this because there was a corresponding spike in testing? Sometimes the media only tells the half of the story that suits their agenda.

 

Probably. 

 

The same thing is happening here right now where the media are all over the Western Cape numbers that are currently accounting for 80% of infections here. Why the Western Cape? Because that's the only province out of 9 that the ruling ANC doesn't control. So let's make our opposition look bad politically by ramping up testing in that part of the country and lay the blame at their feet when the numbers all point to it being the epicentre of the outbreak. 

 

I believe nothing that comes out of government mouths here. Nothing. I'd sooner listen to Henry Kissinger giving a lecture on playing tambourine than another government briefing on the corona virus. 

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And there is is. The last paragraph in this article entitled "The Western Cape Headache" tells you everything you need to know about how the government here is using a humanitarian crisis to bring down their opponents in the Western Cape. 

 

https://city-press.news24.com/News/alcohol-on-tobacco-off-tito-wins-one-fight-for-the-economy-20200524

 

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