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vivionm

Corona Virus

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Mathematical modelling has its worth but also its limitations.

i am old enough to remember the prediction if the Club of Rome, back in the 1960s, that the world would run out of food by 1990.

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I believe strongly that the current approach by governments to tackle this pandemic are going to cause more harm than good. Shutting down public businesses to stop it spreading will have monumentally severe implications for far more people than will be the case of just allowing COVID19 to run its course. This shutdown approach is disastrous and ill-thought out. Some of you will disagree, that's fine. Hear me out. 

 

Many governments seem to think that everybody has a big pot of savings that they can dig into when there is no more work for them. I don't have one. At best I might be able to survive for 6 weeks at present. I am not able to do any work because nobody is spending money to promote their accommodation. Nobody is asking for new websites to be built. I am effectively unemployed. I will not be able to pay my landlords, or buy food if I can't work. I will not be able to pay for the hosting of Fotozones if I don't earn money. I am not alone. I think of all the waitrons who work in restaurants that are closed. I think of the chefs. I think of the airline staff, hotel staff, sports industry, taxi drivers, street vendors, market stall holders, website hosting companies, internet service providers... The list goes on and on. How long will we be able to not work for? Who will pay our bills? When one stacked domino falls they all fall. 

 

This starts to sound very dystopian but it is a reality that I don't think the world leaders are mindful of in their rush to stop the virus by any means possible. What are they going to do when people who are unable to earn an income begin a resistance to their authority in order to survive? This is the reality I see happening long before the spread of COVID19 can be stopped. 

 

I hope I am wrong. 

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My take as of March 19- Here in the USA, the massive and indefinite shut down of businesses (except grocery stores and pharmacies) is unsustainable.  A month...OK...probably survivable.  3 months = big damage.  6, or 9, or 12 months...impossible.  Many millions without any ability to earn money?  I don't see how that works.

The US govt. is talking about sending everyone checks for US$1000 or $2000.  For $2000 a month I could live a modest but dignified life---but that's 'cause my rent is US$500. There are millions of folks who pay $2000 for rent alone.

 Oh, and the head clown of the USA is talking about bailing out the cruise ship industry.


Keith B.

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What I am finding unpalatable is that in the midst of all this chaos, stock markets are allowed to continue doing business. Shut them down, for crying out loud! There should be NO trading of any shares or currencies while this pandemic is disrupting everything. I look at the ZAR at the moment and it's sitting at 1:17.5 against the USD. You could come on safari for lunch money soon (if you have a sailboat to get here...). 

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The markets are in freefall. I sold all my holdings two weeks ago. Will buy again when the markets bottom out.

The fundamental question faced by governments is to strike the right balance between economic loss and loss of life. What is 1% reduction in GDP in terms of lives saved?

As I have said, this decision is cultural as well as economic and social. Different governments will respond differently.

 

On a personal note, I went food shopping this morning, in the hour reserved for the over-65s. There was lots of food on the shelves - no evidence of panic-buying. I wore latex gloves and was in and out in 15 minutes.

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There's an old saying that if the West sneezes, Africa catches pneumonia. There's no saying for what happens when the West catches pneumonia, but I guess we can all figure it out. Africa will be worst hit even if we don't have that many dying. 

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1 hour ago, Dallas said:

What I am finding unpalatable is that in the midst of all this chaos, stock markets are allowed to continue doing business. Shut them down, for crying out loud!

Well, if the markets close, the European Central Bank will be unable to implement its programme of 750 billion euro to buy government and company debt in order to stimulate economies.

Be careful what you wish for.

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2 hours ago, Dallas said:

Does anybody following this thread know anybody who is infected? 

My daughter. She is fully recovered niw.

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1 hour ago, vivionm said:

My daughter. She is fully recovered niw.

 

Very sorry to hear that she has been ill, but great that she has recovered.

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5 hours ago, Anthony said:

 

Very sorry to hear that she has been ill, but great that she has recovered.

 

+1

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3 hours ago, Dallas said:

 

+1

Yes. Thank God. She was very ill for a few days.

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The severity seems to differ from person to person. Some reports I have read are implicating certain medications that people are on tend to exacerbate the symptoms (typically flu meds like ibuprofen), although this isn't confirmed yet. 

 

I am generally pretty resilient to viruses, but I did have some hectic sinusitis about a month ago and I was taking Sinutab for a couple of days. With the lack of work at the moment I am not coming into contact with too many people. Not the case with my son who works at Virgin Active Health Club. They have now been restricting access to their clubs to 100 people max, including staff. Won't be long before they are going to be forced to shut down completely. 

 

 

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Shut downs are starting in Australia now.  They had been bragging about keeping the football going - Aussie rules seemed to be the only first class code playing this weekend.

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On 20/03/2020 at 12:32, vivionm said:

My daughter. She is fully recovered niw.

I am glad she is doing better!

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Posted (edited)
On 10/03/2020 at 07:05, Dallas said:

As I mentioned in the safari zone, I believe that this is yet another exacerbated media frenzy. There is a very low mortality rate from this virus yet the mainstream media continue to be the harbingers of doom, causing widespread panic and alarm. This has already begun to take a huge economic toll as can be seen in world markets. I'm personally feeling the impact with one safari already postponed and a fairly major photography job (ironically a GP conference) cancelled as a result.

 

In all honesty I believe that there are dark and sinister forces at play here, besides the virus itself. 

 

Dallas – given that we are now two weeks later, do you still feel this is a media frenzy? I personally thought the same thing some weeks ago. I no longer feel that way.

 

Here in the US we are now approaching 1/3rd of our total population being told to shelter in place or at least stay home if at all possible. New York City, our largest city with nearly 9M residents, is on complete lock down. Where I live in the Maryland suburbs between Washington DC and Baltimore, we are being asked to limit groups to 10 or less, and I anticipate a shelter-in-place order any day now. The Federal workforce and most private companies are being told to telework. All restaurants, bars, night clubs, gaming operations, etc, are ordered closed. Restaurants are allowed to provide carry-out and delivery only. Many public beaches in coastal states are closed. Spring break students are still gathering an large groups and we are now seeing in increase in number of cases among their demographic.

Edited by Walter Rowe

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20 minutes ago, Walter Rowe said:

 

Dallas – given that we are now two weeks later, do you still feel this is a media frenzy? I personally thought the same thing some weeks ago. I no longer feel that way.

 

Here in the US we are now approaching 1/3rd of our total population being told to shelter in place or at least stay home if at all possible. New York City, our largest city with nearly 9M residents, is on complete lock down. Where I live in the Maryland suburbs between Washington DC and Baltimore, we are being asked to limit groups to 10 or less, and I anticipate a shelter-in-place order any day now. The Federal workforce and most private companies are being told to telework. All restaurants, bars, night clubs, gaming operations, etc, are ordered closed. Restaurants are allowed to provide carry-out and delivery only. Many public beaches in coastal states are closed. Spring break students are still gathering an large groups and we are now seeing in increase in number of cases among their demographic.

 

Honestly, I don't really know what to believe. 

 

So far we have 274 confirmed cases of CV19 and no deaths. Patient zero has recovered 100% and together with his wife has been sent home. Some others are still in isolation pending further testing. Since last week Sunday we have had the same restrictions in place as you mentioned, but I believe that tonight our President will announce a total lockdown and deploy the army to enforce it. I don't know how this is going to work. South Africa is not a country like the rest of the world where people can survive. If we go into lock down and people are prevented from going outdoors I fear that civil unrest will ensue. In short we simply cannot afford to shut down the country as too many people will not be able to survive. The implications of doing that will be far more serious than the spread of CV19. 

 

I don't believe that the numbers reported in SA are anywhere near accurate, mainly because there is no state capacity to conduct proper testing on a mass scale. 

 

These are testing times for many nations, for sure. 

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On 20/03/2020 at 09:52, Dallas said:

Does anybody following this thread know anybody who is infected? 

YES, a VERY close friend -- and you would be wise to stay home and not spread this virus.

I would have said this person is NOT at risk - but is VERY sick.

Be smart - stay isolated and help stop the spread of this virus - don't be selfish or [excuse me] stupid.

 


Hot bodies (D800E, D810, D4, D500) and plenty of glass, but always lusting for more.

 

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Confirmed cases in SA have risen to 402 in a day. Last night the President announced that starting midnight on Thursday the entire country will be on a forced 3 week lock-down. Everybody except essential workers will be forced to stay home for that time. Various economic relief packages have been announced also for distressed businesses during this time. 

 

I have only 1 essential errand to run today and then I am back here. I have to get a gas canister refilled in case we have power cuts. Then y'all are going to hear a lot more from me. :) 

 

I hope your friend makes a quick recovery, Fred. We still don't know anybody infected, but I was watching this video below and basically he says that the variability of the symptoms between people are so great that some people may not even show symptoms. So yes, your advice is solid. 

 

 

 

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My advice to everyone is to obey official advice and to STAY AWAY FROM SOCIAL MEDIA, where so much disinformation is being disseminated.

 

Of course, this advice would also be good in normal times, but especially now.

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8 hours ago, fredazinger said:

Not sounding good for the home team:

https://www.foxnews.com/world/south-africans-stay-at-home-coronavirus-ignored

 

 

I found this using a news aggregator - not usually a Fox reader

 

Locking down this country is impossible in places. I don’t know how the government thought they could do it, but then again looking at who is in government, I am not surprised. 

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Impossible == Its more like Do or Die!

 

Check the impact of "Spring Break" and where they went in the US afterwards:

https://twitter.com/i/status/1242628347034767361

Scary tracking ability, but shows you the problem faced by [your nasty, hated] government trying to stop this threat.

 

Can our collective leaders do better, yes, but at least your 'leader" isn't telling you it's a hoax and go back to work.


Hot bodies (D800E, D810, D4, D500) and plenty of glass, but always lusting for more.

 

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Posted (edited)
On 28/03/2020 at 16:08, Dallas said:

 

Locking down this country is impossible in places. I don’t know how the government thought they could do it, but then again looking at who is in government, I am not surprised. 

Saw some news yesterday - rubber bullets and whips are out near J’berg already.

 

Then again, the Aussie police could do with something like that to clear our parks and beaches.  Sun shines and people head out to the beach or park for a picnic.🤯

Edited by crowecg

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Reading this might give those of you with no experience of the realities of parts of South Africa some perspective on why this lock down is not going to work: https://www.iol.co.za/saturday-star/news/look-how-johannesburg-coped-with-the-first-day-of-the-national-lockdown-45698780 

 

They cannot succeed in stopping the spread of the virus using this method. It will result in more chaos than is necessary. 

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